Tags : Morocco, United States, Western Sahara, Donald Trump, Israël, Gaza, IRA, China, Inflation Reduction Act,
Re-elected as President of the United States on Wednesday, the Republican candidate previously recognized Rabat’s sovereignty over Western Sahara during his first term, in December 2020.
« Donald Trump, the president who recognized Morocco’s sovereignty over the [Western] Sahara, proclaims his return to the White House. » Like the online news outlet Le360, known for its proximity to the royal palace, the Moroccan press has widely celebrated the victory of the real estate magnate, elected after the U.S. presidential election on Tuesday, November 5. The 47th President of the United States is considered « a key ally, » according to the daily L’Opinion. On Wednesday afternoon, King Mohammed VI sent him a message of congratulations.
In Moroccan newspapers and among commentators, no one has forgotten the role Donald Trump played in 2020 regarding the Western Sahara issue, seen by Rabat as an essential part of Morocco’s « territorial integrity. » On December 10 of that year, just a few weeks before the end of his first term, the White House occupant announced on Twitter (now X) that he had « signed a proclamation recognizing Moroccan sovereignty » over this territory, which the United Nations considers “non-autonomous. »
On the same day, during a phone call between the two heads of state, Mohammed VI thanked Mr. Trump, expressing his « deep gratitude for this historic stance. » In return, Morocco agreed to restore official relations with Israel.
A month later, the U.S. ambassador to Rabat visited the city of Dakhla in Western Sahara—a first for a U.S. diplomat of his rank—to kick off « the official process of opening a consulate » alongside the Moroccan foreign minister. However, the project came to a halt with Joe Biden’s inauguration on January 20, 2021. While the Democratic administration did not revoke the proclamation made by its predecessor, it never formalized the establishment of a U.S. diplomatic office in Western Sahara. Contacted by Le Monde, the U.S. Department of State stated in December 2023 that it had « no announcement to make » on the matter.
« I hope he will finish what he started »
The re-election of Donald Trump, in a dispute where a resolution remains Morocco’s top foreign policy objective, was eagerly awaited in the country. « I hope he will finish what he started, namely opening a U.S. consulate in Dakhla or Laâyoune, » says Hassan Alaoui, director of the publication Maroc Diplomatique, who expressed « relief » at the outcome of the U.S. election and was convinced that « the Democrats, unlike the Republicans, have never firmly supported Morocco in Western Sahara. »
However, the consequences of Trump’s return to the White House—characterized by his unpredictable behavior during his first term—remain uncertain for Morocco, although « it is likely that his aversion to multilateralism might provide an opportunity for Morocco to pursue a solution in Western Sahara aligned with Rabat’s goals, » suggests Intissar Fakir, director of the North Africa and Sahel program at the American think tank Middle East Institute.
She believes Donald Trump may once again pursue « unorthodox » and transactional actions outside the United Nations framework, as the president-elect has consistently criticized the inefficacy of the international organization.
Many observers, however, believe that Morocco will not be a priority for Donald Trump, which would have been the case even if his Democratic opponent, Kamala Harris, had won. His diplomatic agenda is likely to focus on the ongoing war in Gaza, which he has repeatedly expressed a desire to end.
Trump’s commitment to promoting peace in the Middle East, a key point in his campaign aimed at Arab-American voters, may therefore lead to a revival of the Abraham Accords. Negotiated and overseen by his son-in-law, Jared Kushner—then a senior advisor to the U.S. president—the accords resulted in the normalization of relations between Israel and several Arab countries, including Morocco, in 2020. Should this initiative resume, Rabat may be called upon to support its continuation.
A Strategic Role Between the U.S. and China
Beyond bilateral relations, Morocco will also closely monitor the expected developments in U.S.-China relations. Donald Trump, aiming to reduce U.S. dependence on critical materials from China essential for electric vehicle production, could amend the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), according to American analysts.
If this occurs, the IRA’s $400 billion (372 billion euros) in funding, allocated under the Biden administration to decarbonize the U.S. economy, would face additional restrictions. This would impact the availability of tax credits for electric vehicles and the conditions for accessing these credits for foreign-made components.
Morocco, which benefits from the IRA through its friendly trade relations or free-trade agreements with the U.S. since 2004, would be significantly affected. This is why major Chinese companies specializing in electric battery and cathode manufacturing have announced plans to invest up to 10 billion euros in the kingdom to maintain access to the U.S. market. In January, the American think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies described this Chinese industrial strategy as an attempt to bypass the IRA by leveraging « friend-shoring » (trade among allied countries). Such an approach could face obstacles if Trump decides to revise the act.
By Alexandre Aublanc (Casablanca, Morocco, correspondent)
Source : Le Monde, 06/11/2024
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