November Algeria report (1/4)

 ALGERIA MONTHLY SITUATION REPORT

November 30, 2012

                     Executive Summary

                        Political Trends

·     The municipal and provincial elections have passed off amid the usual indifference.

·     Interior Minister Ould Kablia has indicated that the process of constitutional reform should begin soon with the appointment of a commission in charge of drafting amendments.

·     At least three figures previously identified as possible successors to Bouteflika – former Prime Ministers Ahmed Ouyahia and Abdelaziz Bouteflika, and Public Works Minister Amar Ghoul – seem for various reasons to be out of the running for the 2014 presidential election.

·     Ali Benflis, Bouteflika’s unlucky challenger in 2004, may now be emerging as a serious contender, possibly enjoying the support of DRS chief Tewfik.

·     On the other hand, the regime’s need for stability and continuity may mean that President Bouteflika will run for a fourth term of office after all.

                        Foreign Relations

·     Despite the ECOWAS resolution approving military action, there will be no quick solution to the crisis in northern Mali. At least six months’ preparation are thought to be necessary for an military intervention, once it has been okayed by the UNSC in mid-December.

·     Algiers has been restating its opposition to military “adventures” in northern Mali, and has been engaging the Ansar Dine and MNLA rebel groups in dialogue, with at least superfical success.

·     As French President François Hollande’s visit to Algeria draws near, differences between Algiers and Paris on the way forward in northern Mali are thus increasingly open.

·     Algiers will not be reassured by an apparent warming of relations between France and Morocco, amid unconfirmed reports that Paris has sought the participation of Moroccan special forces in any military operation to reconquer northern Mali.

                        Security

·     Jihadist activity has continued to decline, dropping to particularly low levels in November.

·      Although there was one minor incident in Algiers, the bulk of jihadist activity has been recorded in AQMI’s heartland in Kabylia.

·     There have been sporadic incidents, mostly involving suspected gun-runners on Algeria’s southern borders, notably with Libya.

·     Towards the end of November, security forces rounded up over 60 suspected sympathisers of MUJAO in the Wilaya of Tamanrasset.