The Morocco Trap (NARCOANALYSIS)

Tags : Morocco, Algeria, Western Sahara, Rabat, Front Polisario, Nasser Bourita, war,

Geoff D. Porter

18 November 2024

Tensions between Morocco and Algeria are mounting precipitously. Or rather, Morocco is precipitously mounting tensions with Algeria. And if Algeria is not careful, it could fall into a trap well laid by Rabat. That trap would result in Algeria being marginalized on the international stage for the foreseeable future. Algeria would be labeled a rogue and pariah, shunned and alone even though when the dust settles, Algeria will have done nothing wrong.

In a November 6 speech commemorating Morocco’s 1975 Green March into Western Sahara, King Mohammed VI blasted unnamed countries for living in a fantasy world where Western Saharans could someday exercise their self-determination. It was lost on no one that the monarch was referring to Algeria, which has been the loudest proponent of Sahraoui selfdetermination other than the Sahraouis themselves.

The king also said that countries, presumably meaning Algeria again, were clinging to the Western Sahara issue in order to distract their populations from domestic problems. Some observers pointed out that sometimes what is an accusation and what is a confession can be confusing

Two days later, Morocco’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Nasser Bourita said that Algeria is preparing for war with Morocco. Again, that slippery space between confession and accusation. Algeria has not shifted its military posture in any material way. That Algeria is not actually preparing for war with Morocco, though, misses the point. Bourita and the palace are shaping the narrative and preemptively portraying Algeria as the aggressor and Morocco as the aggrieved.

Just days later, the Western Saharan independence group Polisario Front lobbed shells at Mahbes, a remote garrison hamlet in the Moroccan controlled portion of the disputed territory of Western Sahara. The shells landed near an official gathering convened to commemorate the Green March. Morocco said that Polisario Front was deliberately targeting civilians. Other sources said that Polisario was trying to hit a Moroccan military outpost on the settlement’s outskirts. Morocco allegedly responded with drone strikes on Polisario Front forces.

Determining what actually occurred is nigh impossible. There are no independent journalists in either the Moroccan or Polisario-controlled parts of the disputed territory. But again, what actually happens is beside the point. The story is the goal. And this is the trap that could ensnare Algeria.

Morocco and Polisario will trade more volleys. Of that there is almost no doubt. And that affords Morocco a tremendous opportunity. It does not really matter what Polisario might hit in Moroccancontrolled territory, if it manages to hit anything at all. What matters is what Morocco says Polisario hit. Israel justified its catastrophic attack on the al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza by claiming that Hamas used the hospital as a command center. There was no way to verify Israel’s claims and Israel’s attack on the hospital went ahead unchecked. (No command center was ever found, but no matter.)

It is not unimaginable then that Morocco would claim something similar, albeit inverted: Rabat could say that the next Polisario Front shelling hit critical infrastructure or a military installation or otherwise threatened Morocco’s national security. There would be no way to corroborate Morocco’s account. The only versions of any event would be those conveyed by the Moroccan press, which Rabat keeps on a short leash.

In light of Polisario Front’s reported attack on Morocco’s national security –a direct assault on the nation and its people – Morocco would have no choice but to retaliate. A violation of its sovereignty and an egregious transgression of international law, Morocco would argue that it is well within its rights to defend itself. Much like Israel attacking targets in southern Lebanon, across an international border, Morocco would argue that it has a right to pursue the Polisario in its safe havens in Sahraoui refugee camps in Algeria. Israel pursued Hezbollah all the way to Beirut, and Morocco would pursue Polisario all the way to Tindouf.

Morocco is already leveraging the loose language of terrorism to justify its opposition to the Polisario Front, saying that it is a terrorist organization, its members are terrorists, and its sympathizers and supporters should be sanctioned for providing material support to terrorism. And much like Israel says its attacks from Beirut to the Beqaa are not against Lebanon but against Hezbollah, Morocco would argue that its attack on Tindouf was not against Algeria, another sovereign nation, but against a terrorist organization.

But also like Israel, which does not carefully distinguish between Palestinian civilians in Gaza and members of Hamas or between Lebanese civilians and members of Hezbollah, Morocco would not differentiate between Sahraoui civilians living in refugee camps and members of the Polisario Front’s armed groups: they’re either Polisario members or they’re unfortunate collateral deaths.

But a Moroccan attack on Sahraoui camps in Algeria is just the trap’s bait.

In the event of a Moroccan attack, Algeria, fiercely jealous of its sovereignty, would be obliged to respond to this flagrant violation of its national territory. After all, the sole purpose of Algeria’s massive and well-equipped military is to safeguard the homeland and to defend Algeria’s borders. Algeria’ s famous nonintervention doctrine means that its military is, by definition, defensive and reactive – any attack on Algeria must be NARCO 3 info@northafricarisk.com www.northafricarisk.com forcefully riposted. Algeria would be within its rights to respond – the refugee camps in Tindouf may be for Sahraouis, but they are in Algerian sovereign territory. And Algeria would respond to a Moroccan attack in kind. Algeria would be careful to restrict any retaliatory attack to the Moroccan-controlled portion of the disputed territory and not on Morocco proper.

But Algeria’s attack springs the trap

Morocco – which claims that the entirety of the disputed territory is in fact Morocco – would howl to the international community that it has been attacked by a rogue state that harbors terrorists. Rabat would argue that it had simply defended itself against terrorists who had attacked Moroccan territory, and that Algeria was now conspiring with terrorists to attack Morocco. Moreover, Morocco would argue, just for good measure, that Algeria is colluding with Tehran and with Hezbollah, just to add heft to its claims. Rabat would call on the international community make Algeria a pariah, unworthy of being included a among the community of nations.

And Algeria is trapped.

Washington, Paris, Madrid, Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, and Jerusalem among others would all rally around Rabat. Morocco’s diplomatic brokering, bartering, and blackmailing over the last five years shored up international support and it is about to pay dividends.

Morocco’s alliance with Washington is unassailable, especially now that President Trump, who authorized US recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the disputed territory in 2020, was just re-elected. Morocco signed the Abraham Accords and normalized relations with Israel – much to the distaste of most Moroccans – and that has given Morocco freehand in Washington. It can do no wrong. On top of that Morocco is a US Major Non-NATO Ally, which is the highest ally relationship the US can have outside of NATO. The White House and Congress are also enamored of Morocco, its orientalist pastiche, its carpets and tagines, and its camels and faux Blue Men.

Morocco and Israel are also now joined at the hip, marching in lockstep. Morocco buys Israeli defense and espionage tech, and it serves as a transit point for weapons shipments to Israel. In turn, Israeli companies are investing in the disputed territory, including an Israeli oil and gas company that is exploring in the disputed territory’s Atlantic waters.

Relations between France and Morocco are also flourishing with Morocco offering up billions of Euros in investment opportunities to French companies in exchange for France’s recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara. This is not to mention the millions of French who vacation in Morocco every year and who have been snatching up real estate throughout the country for the last decade: you can’t throw a rock in Marrakech without hitting a Frenchman.

Madrid also tilted its foreign policy in Rabat’s favor. In 2021, illegal migration from Morocco into the Spanish exclaves of Ceuta and Melilla spiked, seemingly with the complicity of Moroccan authorities. In 2022, Morocco was accused of having NARCO 4 info@northafricarisk.com www.northafricarisk.com spied on Madrid’s top politicians including the prime minister, the minister of defense, the interior minister, and the minister of agriculture (a sector in which many Moroccan migrants work.) And then suddenly, Madrid abandoned its neutral stance on the Western Sahara file and endorsed Morocco’s position.

Lastly, Morocco has enduring ties with the UAE and Saudi Arabia. These ties, however, are not founded on geographic proximity or shared national security threats, but on their shared form of government – all hereditary monarchies in the 21st century, an atavistic Arab Kings’ Club.

Thus, were Algeria to attack Morocco, regardless of the circumstances, the US, France, Spain, Israel, the UAE, and KSA would support Rabat.

Algeria can’t count on a comparable level of support, a consequence of its idiosyncratic foreign policy approach. Algeria is friendly with everyone, but it is friends with no one. (Arguably, Morocco isn’t friends with anyone either but rather has subordinate clientelist relationships.) Algeria foreign policy has always been predicated on going it alone, that Algeria will abide, that at the end of the day, there will always be Algeria. But this aloofness has its costs.

It’s unclear who, if anyone, would stand by Algeria’s side in the event of a confrontation with Morocco. Algeria would undoubtedly turn to the UN, but it’s become as toothless as it is feckless. Algeria has maintained ties with Moscow, and Tehran has always appreciated Algeria’s adamant refusal to recognize the Zionist Entity. But Russia and Iran are not exactly favored advocates on the international stage. Worse, were Russia and Iran to support Algeria, they would vindicate Morocco’s position that Algeria is a rogue state in league with other rogue states.

Morocco would demand that Algeria be cast out, that it be appended to so-called Axis of Evil. Morocco would insist that Algeria is indeed the North Korea of North Africa and that Washington and Paris and Madrid and Israel need to stand shoulder to shoulder with Morocco to defend it noy just from Algerian aggression, but from Russian and Iranian encroachment in North Africa.

Forget that the narrative is founded on false premises. That no longer matters. Moroccan drone strikes in Algeria territory will have been completely elided. Washington and Paris and Madrid and Israel oblige. After all, they have little to lose, and they convince themselves that they can make do without Algeria.

Algeria for its part is accustomed to going it alone. It bristles at being labeled a rogue state. It knows it is not. Rather than trying to curry favor with foreign states to convince them otherwise, it tells them to pound sand: Algeria is for Algeria and for Algeria alone. And it will abide. Always.

In the meantime, Morocco has succeeded in marginalizing Algeria from the international community for the foreseeable future. “Morocco good, Algeria bad” sticks, and it frames international engagement with North Africa for the next decade. The timing is particularly NARCO 5 info@northafricarisk.com www.northafricarisk.com fortuitous. Morocco is on the cusp of an unsteady royal succession and the heir to the throne is only 21 years old. It would be terribly helpful to lock in international support for the young king’s realm at least through his twenties, if not longer .

This then is Morocco’s trap. North Africa Risk Consulting is available to answer your questions on Algerian politics, international relations, security, and the investment environment.

info@northafricarisk.com

Source : North Africa risk

#Morocco #Algeria #WesternSahara #Polisario